Math on Trial: How Numbers Get Used and Abused in the Courtroom

Math on Trial: How Numbers Get Used and Abused in the Courtroom by Leila Schneps

In books read on May 16, 2013

As a mathematician I really enjoyed reading most of this book. I'm someone who jumps up and down and gets annoyed when I notice statistics being misused in the news and especially in legally binding situations: typically when something like "1 in x million" is used to mean "so unlikely that it couldn't happen" which it certainly doesn't mean[*]. I'm not a statistician though and I'm sure plenty of number-misuse gets past me too, and I was pleased to read this and add a few more tools to my news-busting mathematical arsenal.

The format of the book is to point out a mathematical error and then go into the detail of a legal case that rested on that mathematical error. My only complaint is that some of the legal case details went on a bit and went far beyond what was needed to see the maths problem. That possibly makes it a better book for a general readership though - it's not constant bashing you over the head with maths - but basically I thought some of it was better written than other bits; the opening chapters better polished than later ones. It was nice to see cases from all over the world included and for the most part you didn't need to have any prior knowledge of the cases to follow the book although some of them are pretty well known.

It has been proposed in the past that probabilistic evidence should not be admissible in court, basically most people (lawyers, judges, juries) don't understand it and it is easily twisted to give a damning result by someone who does (or thinks they do) understand it. Even as a mathematician who thinks we all ought to be more numerate I can see that there is sense in that argument. In the age of DNA profiling though we are only going to see more number based evidence turning up in courtrooms. I'm sure the authors will have no trouble in finding material for a follow up book!

[*] I'm pleased to see the authors used my standard comeback to explain this fallacy: With a "1 in 14 million chance" of winning the lottery we would all be hugely surprised if we ourselves won the lottery, but it doesn't surprise us at all that someone wins it almost every week.

This was a kindle eBook.

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Time Waster of the Day

In rambling on on May 15, 2013

Can you beat me at geoguessr?

I expect you can, I hadn’t realised you could move around a bit – looking for road signs is helpful. Though actually I’ve only done worse since I discovered that you could move so maybe there is some truth in the idea that you are better going with your first impression. I was quite pleased to have guessed most of them to the right continent.

[found via kottke]

Murder In The Afternoon (Kate Shackleton, #3)

Murder In The Afternoon (Kate Shackleton, #3) by Frances Brody

In books read on May 8, 2013

Another interesting case for Kate. I think the 1920s setting works well and I enjoy seeing how women's roles are changing in the aftermath of the first world war as well as the mysteries themselves.

This was a kindle eBook.

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April Baking

In cooking on May 8, 2013

This is the round up of my baking endeavours for April. The aim is to reach 52 during 2013.

  1. Quorn Bacon & Leek QuicheQuorn Bacon & Leek Quiche
    Another quiche. Not terribly exciting but I am getting quite good at making these without the aid of a recipe! Nearly forgot to take a photo.
  2. Ginger NutsGinger Nuts
    These were slightly overdone but good. I overdid the syrup in these and had to add more flour, but preferred them to the ones I have made since so I will do that again.
  3. Malt LoafMalt Loaf
    My first attempt at making a malt loaf. Soreen must put some kind of colouring in theirs as mine looks very anaemic next to the shop bought version. It was slightly underdone but it kind of didn’t matter as it had the right malt loaf chewiness. I will be making more of this.
  4. Mushroom & Asparagus QuicheMushroom & Asparagus Quiche
    Just when I thought I was getting the hang of quiches I try to make a double recipe and my pastry wasn’t nearly as good as usual.
  5. Mini Asparagus Quiche
    Mini Asparagus Quiche
    Made at the same time as the mushroom & asparagus one for Miranda who doesn’t like mushrooms, with two extras to make some lunches out of.
  6. Pear & Meringue Trifle
    Pear & Meringue Trifle
    I realised that the rest of the month’s baking was pretty workaday and wanted to jazz it up with something a bit posher. But when my sponge came out of the oven it was too flat and paving slab like for the posh confectionary fingers it was supposed to turn into. So I invented this with some ingredients out of the cupboard instead.

That makes 22/52. Not the most exciting of baking months – I will try and get something more fancy into May…

t

Pear & Meringue TrifleOrienteerOrienteeringGinger Nuts IIBroken BiscuitsMini Asparagus QuicheMushroom & Asparagus QuicheLots of SkyYou Looking At Me?Malt Loaf

Flickr Pics 4th May 2013

on May 4, 2013 by kirsty

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Heretics: Adventures With The Enemies Of Science

Heretics: Adventures With The Enemies Of Science by Will Storr

In books read on May 1, 2013

This is basically a look at how we decide what to believe in, and what not to believe in, by way of a wander around with a cast of characters who believe in all kinds of different things: it features homeopaths and the skeptics who oppose them, holocaust deniers and people who think they suffered satanic abuse as children among others. It's a very personal look at things by the author, who bravely pulls up his own 'story' of his life as an example in places - I'm not sure I'd be willing to do the same though I do agree that one of the traits that makes us human is that we try to make coherent stories of everything - and it's a better book for the personalisation aspect. In places I thought it got bogged down in the details but overall it was well worth the read.

This was a kindle eBook.

Shortcomings

Shortcomings by Adrian Tomine

In books read on April 27, 2013

I've read the book, but not yet written anything down about it. Check back later (maybe!).

This was a paperback.

The Innocents

The Innocents by Francesca Segal

In books read on April 21, 2013

I picked this up on the strength of it's winning the Costa first novel award and was a bit disappointed in the rather pedestrian beginning with Adam getting slightly cold feet about marrying his long term girlfriend Rachel. It develops into a really interesting story though and it didn't really cover the ground I was expecting it to though it does make for a good look at the North London Jewish community. The writing is good and it's very quoteworthy. I enjoyed it.

I'm quite surprised, reading other Goodreads reviews after finishing the book, to find it is a reworking of an Edith Wharton novel. I will have to have a read of that sometime. I'm unsure what to make of this fact without knowing the original work. Certainly this was worth reading in it's own right though.

This was a kindle eBook.

t

Ginger NutsQuorn Bacon & Leek QuicheStamp Collecting

Flickr Pics 18th April 2013

on April 18, 2013 by kirsty

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Legoland Discovery Centre Revisited

In rambling on on April 16, 2013

I wrote up our visit to the Legoland Discovery Centre in Manchester after we visited when it first opened in 2010. We recently revisited and I thought it was worth making an updated post.

We visited with our now 8-year old daughter and took a friend along with her this time.

Lego Ninjago

Not that much has changed since the first visit really, but enough that I’m feeling better able to recommend it as a good day out.

Two new rides have been built since we first visited:

Merlin’s Apprentice – Seemed to be a long queue for a short ride. A carousel where you pedal to get your car to go up in the air. It’s set up for two children or an adult and a child to ride in each car. From memory the children had to be over 1.2m to ride by themselves. In case you don’t have enough adults to go with smaller children the Lego staff were around to act as chaperones. Which I’m sure is a lovely job to have but it’s a bit annoying when only 12 people can ride at once and a couple of them are staff each time. And there is no way for adults to ride without children. Since the two children with us wanted to ride together, the adults couldn’t ride, which isn’t really a problem – it’s a kids day out after all – but when you are being charged the same entry fee for adults as children it would be nice to have a bit more fun!

Forest Pursuit I

Forest Pursuit – Drive a pedal car and get a driving licence is pretty much a Lego standard ride and it is the latest to come to Manchester. The kids enjoyed it but had to buy their photo licences at the end (at Windsor they got a card licence free) and the £8 fee seemed a bit steep although having two children for the day meant they could take advantage of a 2 for £10 deal. I got very annoyed having to wait around to buy the licences though as the desk was unstaffed and the ride staff didn’t want to help. Our 8 year olds were under the 1.5m height limit but this was being strictly enforced and some older children were being turned away disappointed.

The third ride is the Kingdom Quest ride – exactly as it was before except this time the staff did explain the guns to us. (And I won :) )

Most other things were as they were before. We noticed improvements at the Fire Academy playgym which was staffed and being queued for – though the queue was being jumped so it could have been better organised still. We got a table in the cafe without a problem, though it was busy. Miniland seemed better maintained than before and the new Star Wars displays were nice. The “girls” Lego area (I will restrain myself from giving my full not very complimentary opinion on “girls” Lego here!) has changed to the new “Friends” brand and seemed to have some kind of not-working very well karaoke going on, we didn’t investigate. Oh, and the 4D cinema had a new film about Lego’s new Legends of Chima range which the kids enjoyed – I was pleased they weren’t playing the same films as three years ago although I didn’t think this was as good as the ones we had seen before.

Last time we were out within a couple of hours so this time with the extra rides I had allowed for about three hours before they were bored. We spent most of our time queuing and riding and we left after about four hours having not really got onto building any Lego yet! Don’t worry, they went home with plenty from the shop!

All in all it was a better experience than the first time, although it was busier and we spent more time queuing. We could have spent longer there. It still seems quite expensive, even at online pre-booked ticket prices. Do pre-book still, we had to queue for 10 minutes or so with pre-booked tickets, it was an hour or more without.

Legoland claim the centre is suitable for 3-10 year olds and I think that’s about right – if I get round to it I’ll probably take Miranda, aged 8, back for a last visit in the next 18 months or so, much beyond that and it would only be worth visiting with younger visitors in tow as she’d be too tall to do everything. I fancy another dive into the big Lego car making box….